Has the yield curve inverted already?

In my previous post I said that the yield curve is likely to invert next year if the Fed keeps rising the rate. Since Tuesday, a lot of fuss has been made in the press about the fact that the 2-year note yield has gone higher than the 10-year note yield, as shown by the yield curve as it appears at the time of writing this:

However, in my opinion this is not yet an inverted yield curve. When yields from the 6 month bill to the 10 year note are confined within 10 basis points any fluctuation can cause a little inversion within that duration range. I would wait for the 3 month bill to yield more than the 10 year note to call it an inverted yield curve.

Categories: bondmarket, interestrates
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